ARLINGTON, VA, May 14, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Aluminum Association today released a new white paper developed in collaboration with Wittsend Commodity Advisors, Powering Up American Aluminum: A Roadmap for Next Generation Supply Chain Resilience, outlining pathways to move the United States industry toward greater self-sufficiency in its domestic aluminum supply. The U.S. aluminum industry has evolved over the last quarter century and shifted its business to become a global powerhouse in mid-and-downstream aluminum production and recycling – investing more than $10 billion in U.S. operations over the past decade. At the same time, steady demand growth and a declining primary aluminum production footprint within the United States has led to a gap of around 4 million metric tons of raw (or unwrought) aluminum that the industry must import – today largely from long-time trading partner Canada.

“Aluminum is a critical material for our nation’s economic and national security – found in everything from cars and cans to fighter jets, tanks and the electric grid,” said Charles Johnson, president & CEO of the Aluminum Association. “Even if we could flip a switch and turn on every idled aluminum smelter tomorrow, the U.S. industry cannot currently produce nearly enough metal to make the products that Americans rely upon. This new research shows us that greater self-sufficiency will require an all-of-the-above approach to energy, trade and recycling policy to ensure that U.S. manufacturers have abundant, affordable metal.”

Achieving U.S. aluminum self-sufficiency will require time, money and commitment from both the public and private sector to build new smelters and recycle more aluminum. The white paper focuses on three main pathways to address industry metal supply:

Build new or restart idled primary aluminum smelters.

• New: There are undoubtedly opportunities to build new aluminum smelting capacity in the United States, including two projects currently under discussion. Building such facilities will take time (5 – 6 years), significant capital investment ($4 - $6 billion/facility) and long-term, competitive power contracts and the equivalent annual electricity usage of the city of Boston or Nashville. To fully meet current metal needs, the United States would need to build around five 750,000 metric ton smelters. The largest fully operational smelter in the United States right now is 220,000 metric tons.
• Restart: Slightly less than half of installed U.S. primary aluminum capacity is currently in operation. Bringing this metal back online from 4 existing smelters would require long-term, competitively priced power contracts and still significant capital investment. Even then, restarting all idled smelters would only meet around 15% of the current 4 million metric ton metal supply gap.

Recover and recycle more domestic aluminum scrap.

• While domestic primary production has declined over recent decades, recycled (or secondary) aluminum production has grown, hitting record levels in 2024. Recycling aluminum is about 95% less energy intensive than primary production and relies largely on scrap aluminum as an input material. Building aluminum recycling facilities is also far less capital intensive. New sorting technologies could unlock even more available scrap aluminum. Collecting and recycling the estimated 1 - 2 million MT of usable scrap currently landfilled or exported would meet 25% - 50% of the existing U.S. metal supply gap.

Import metal from trusted partners, especially Canada.

• As the industry works to produce more domestic aluminum, access to affordable, reliable Canadian primary aluminum is a vital bridge for metal supply and a good deal for America. The aluminum the United States imports from Canada is equivalent to more than 4 Hoover Dams worth of energy each year – often at a significant discount from direct electricity imports. Aluminum smelters in Canada typically pay $25 - $40 per MWh of electricity vs. $60 - $80 per MWh in the United States. Further, every one aluminum smelter job in Canada supports about 13 U.S. aluminum jobs further downstream.

Enormous electricity requirements for primary aluminum production poses a unique challenge for industry self-sufficiency. A single new aluminum smelter uses ~11 TWh – a similar amount of electricity used by a major U.S. city like Boston or Nashville each year. Furthermore, to be economically competitive, a smelter requires a 10 – 20 year contract with electricity costs ~$40/MWh. Technology companies are currently committing upward of $115/MWh for power at AI data centers. The Energy Information Administration estimates that the United States will have an energy deficit ~ 50 TWh by 2035 on current trendlines.

Consistent with the Trump administration’s vision to make the industry more self-sufficient and less reliant on imported metal, the Aluminum Association is calling on policymakers to support the Aluminum Agenda on areas like energy, trade and recycling policy to increase American self-reliance in this critical sector of the manufacturing economy. 

To learn more about what’s needed to boost American aluminum production, visit www.aluminum.org/PowerUp. 

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About The Aluminum Association
The Aluminum Association represents the full value chain of aluminum production and jobs in the United States, including companies that make 70% of the aluminum and aluminum products shipped in North America. The association is the industry’s leading voice, developing global standards, business intelligence, sustainability research and industry expertise for member companies, policymakers and the general public. Aluminum helps manufacturers make good products great and great products even better – from fuel-efficient vehicles and sustainable packaging to the infrastructure of tomorrow and more. The industry supports $228 billion in economic activity and nearly 700,000 jobs in the United States. Aluminum companies have invested more than $10 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the past decade to capture next generation growth. For more information, visit https://www.aluminum.org.

Katie Rosebrook
Aluminum Association
703-358-2966
krosebrook@aluminum.org